Talk About Digital Cinema

Paul Dergarabedian
President
Media By Numbers

Paul Dergarabedian

Paul Dergarabedian's love of film began when his father "...gave me a Kodak Super-8 camera when I was a kid..." and began taking the family to the movies. At Long Beach State, Paul got a Bachelor's Degree in Radio, TV and Film; at the Annenberg School of Communications at USC, he earned a Master's Degree in Communications Management. After a short time working for an architectural firm, he joined a Los Angeles-based company, Exhibitor Relations, and began to report and analyze the box office receipts from the movies. After working his way up to President of that company, he left, and on December 1, 2006, he started his own company, Media By Numbers.

On what Media By Numbers does

We track and analyze the box office. We get our information directly from the studios - Warner Bros tells us how their movies did, Disney tells us how their movies played, and so forth - on a daily basis. And there are some checks and balances in there, so that's really the most accurate way, to do this. And then we put all that data together - in several forms - including a weekend chart that provides the final box office numbers for the top 12 movies, and a weekly newsletter that provides perspective and analysis. We're a subscription-based service and we provide the numbers to the distribution, exhibition, and news media communities - in ways that are easy for our customers to use.

On how studios use the information he provides

It's become a major marketing tool. That weekend box office chart allows studios to have bragging rights about what they've accomplished. A recent example, 'Cloverfield', had the 'biggest January opening ever', the 'biggest Martin Luther King Jr. opening weekend ever', it was the 'biggest Friday debut in January'. The studios use that in their advertising. And when audiences hear or read that information, they get excited to see the movie, they want to be on-board with a winner, so to speak. It's kind of fun to watch how all that works.

On marketing movies

I don't think it's surprising that the Internet is being used so much - the so-called 'viral marketing', with its own practices and communities -- but the traditional methods still apply. You still need television; you still need to have a good trailer; a great one-sheet - the poster - is very important. And then, it's good to have a great movie at the end of the process. That's your best marketing tool - people who have seen the movie and want to be foot soldiers to help you promote it - to the point where they will go back with their friends to see it because they can't wait to see it again - in the theatre.

On how different movies 'play' differently

For most movies, Saturday is the biggest grossing day, Friday is second and Sunday is the smallest grossing day of the weekend, but every movie has its own 'trajectory', depending on its genre. For example, movies that have big marketing dollars behind them often have their biggest day on opening day - even though it's usually a Friday - and then their Saturday drops off. Horror films are notorious for dropping off big in their second weekends. Kids' movies are generally a little stronger on Sunday than they are on Saturday because families have other things - soccer games, for example - going on, on Saturday; and on Friday, the kids are in school.

On the difference in release patterns today

There is this whole notion that films don't have 'legs' - that they don't play as long as they used to - but I think that's because of how they're released - into so many theatres on that opening weekend. It used to be - back in the days of 'Jaws', for example - that a big nationwide release was 500 prints. Now, a movie might open in 4000 theatres on 10,000 screens and so when you have that level of saturation, it's hard to maintain that high level of interest, week in and week out, over the long term.

On estimating the film's 'final numbers'

It used to be that, whatever a film opened at in its first weekend, you could multiply that by five or six and you would be pretty close to its final gross. Now, you can take opening weekend numbers and multiply them by two - three, if you're lucky - because it really has become an 'opening weekend' business. For instance, 'Spider-man 3' last summer opened with $150 million and went on to do a total of $336 million - domestically - so it earned nearly half of its total domestic box office in that opening weekend. Opening weekend is what all the marketing effort is directed towards; a big opening weekend number is what every studio executive wants to see - but the studio also wants movies to play over the long haul, and it's rare to have it both ways.

On what you never really know

It's a tough business because each film is like a 'new born, unless it's a re-release, it's a new product that has never been out in the world before. Similar films may have been out there - but not this story told this way with this cast. So, if you're the distributor, you control as many things as you can -- you control the release date, you control the marketing campaign -- but when the weekend comes, it's a crap shoot. There are some movies you see and you just love and they don't do well. And there are other movies you can't stand and you can't figure out why they do so well - but that's part of the magic of movies. They are totally subjectively interpreted art.

On trends he's seen while he's been looking at the numbers

One of the biggest trends I've seen is the proliferation of sequels. Last year, there were three in May - 'Spider-man', 'Shrek' and 'Pirates' -- and each one of those earned over a hundred million dollars in opening weekend. It used to be that a hundred million dollar opening weekend was unimaginable and then the original 'Spider-man' came along and did $114 million and change - and it was like breaking the sound barrier. Now, numerous films have done that. But, it does get overwhelming for the audience; each weekend they're migrating to the next big blockbuster, which means that rarely is any movie able to keep the number one spot for more than one weekend.

On another release strategy - for 'different' movies

The 'platform release' - where a film opens in just a handful of theatres and then is expanded, over time, out into more and more theatres -- has been perfected to a fine art. 'Juno', 'No Country For Old Men', and 'There Will Be Blood' are examples of platform releases. If you were to release any one of those films into 4000 theatres on opening weekend, those films may not find their audience because they need 'word of mouth' to build. So, a platform release gets people talking about the movie, gets the buzz building so people go out and look for the film and they feel rewarded for finding it.

On different movies for different people

There have been a lot more independent films released in the past years than there used to be. There are more and more of these 'arthouse' film distributors than there used to be. And I think the more that people see of these types of movies, the more opportunities they have to love them. But, the great thing is - audiences can either be sophisticated or not - it's up to them. I've always said - there's 'cinematic fine dining' and there's 'cinematic fast food'. Some of those 'cinematic fine dining' experiences are among the most mind-expanding, moving, impactful experiences people will ever have. But there is also room for fun, mindless entertainment. Why not? It's not all about serious film.

On the PG-rated movies

Something that I think is really important to the future of the industry is the PG-rated film. It used to be that audiences thought "...well PG movies are not really 'G' and not really 'PG-13', so they might be too kid-like and they won't be edgy enough..." but the industry has really come up with a way to make these movies appropriate for everyone, but also edgy enough to be entertaining to older audiences. At the end of last year, there were really three films that saved the box office: 'I Am Legend', 'National Treasure 2' and 'Alvin and the Chipmunks'. Two of those three - 'I Am Legend' is PG-13 -- are PG-rated films. Who would have thought that 'Alvin and the Chipmunks' would do over $200 million at the box office? Now the most coveted audience is the 'PG family audience' because they can bring really big box office numbers.

On studios as brands

The one we think of mostly is Disney, but now 'Pixar' and even Dreamworks are becoming stronger brands. We tend to think of movies that are 'star-driven' or even 'director-driven', but there are movies that are 'studio-driven' also - and Fox Searchlight is a good example. 'Juno', 'Little Miss Sunshine', 'Sideways' 'Once', 'Waitress', 'Napoleon Dynamite' - all of those are Fox Searchlight films, so kudos for them for creating movies that are entertaining, but have a heart and a sense of intelligence. They just seem like little movies, but they have universal themes that resonate with people, and have characters that are so well drawn that audiences love them. Fox Searchlight created a brand by being a distributor that picks terrific projects and brings them to the audience.

On looking back at 2007

Last year, because we knew we were going to have a large number of sequels, we thought it would be a record year. But during the fall season, there were almost three months when the box office was down and it really took a bite out of the industry's chance - for the first time - to hit $10 billion in total annual domestic box office. And yet, I think that 2007 was one of the best years for film in a long time. For example, all the 'Best Picture' nominees are totally worthy. And, the performances! Daniel Day-Lewis is a miracle. And Paul Dano going toe-to-toe with him. That's something else I loved about 2007 - in so many movies, every role was cast as if it were the lead. There were so many incredible supporting performances - people making indelible impressions even in very small roles. I think that's become a staple of great movies - there are no throwaway roles.

On looking out at the year ahead

This year is shaping up in an interesting way and, to me, the summer looks really strong. I'm very excited about 'Ironman' and the 'Indiana Jones' movie; and the way that Christopher Nolan has re-imagined the 'Batman' series has been incredible and we'll get 'Dark Knight' this summer with Heath Ledger's performance that looks so impressive from the trailers. 'James Bond', with Daniel Craig, also looks great -- but I kind of like the fact that there aren't as many obvious blockbusters as there were last year because that means there will be more surprises to discover, smaller movies that turn out to be really, really great films.

On the health of the movie industry today

In 2005, we had an 18-weekend slump, the lowest box office attendance in years; people were saying '...this is the end of going to the movies as we know it...', but here we are in 2008 and it's holding its own. We'd like to see an increase in attendance, but the movie experience - going to the theatres - will stick around for a long, long time because it's really unique. If you're a movie lover, you really want to see movies on a big screen; that's the canvas they were meant for, it gives them a cache, a credibility. Movie stars are born when they're bigger than life. And I think that with visionaries in this industry working with new technologies - 3D and large format and digital projection - all serving the emotional part of this process -- that is where this industry is going. It's technology serving emotion to create this very unique big screen experience.

On improving the movie-going experience for the future

One place to start - and many theatres have done this - is just to create a really wonderful environment in which to see a movie. We have a theatre here in Los Angeles called the 'Arclight' and it's a destination in and of itself. It makes going to the movies a much more enjoyable experience. The tickets cost more, but every seat is reserved; before the movie begins, someone comes out and tells you about the movie you will see - the running time and so forth; that person stays in the theatre in case there are any problems with projection or sound, or disruptions, or if you have questions. Audiences feel like they are getting more for their money -- and they do come back because you can just tell that there is a love for film there.

On being a fan of the movies

I once apologized to the director, Sydney Pollack, for what I did for a living. I said, "I hate that I have to take your art and distill it down to dollars and cents. But I do love your movies." I'm the biggest movie fan, ever. I love the talent that movies attract. I love the work of some first-time directors and I love the fact that some genres, such as the western - James Mangold's brilliant '3:10 to Yuma' - are being brought back. Tommy Lee Jones's performances in 'In The Valley of Elah' and in 'No Country for Old Men' - incredible work. Javier Bardem, playing one of the most evil screen villains ever, with no apparent redeeming qualities, but a performance that will be talked about for a long time. Ellen Page did such a great job in 'Juno' with Diablo Cody's script. And I love all genres. As long as it's a good movie, count me in; I want to go along for the ride.